Books, Book Chapters, Encyclopedia Articles, and Editorships

Homer J, Milstein B, Hirsch G. Using System Dynamics to Rethink Health System Reform.  In Complex Systems and Population Health: A Primer, ed. Y Apostolopoulos, KH Lich, and MK Lemke. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.  Expected 2019.

Homer JB.  More Models That Matter: System Dynamics Writings 2011-2017. Grapeseed Press, Barrytown, New York. ISBN: 978-1978097841. October 2017.

Hirsch G, Homer J. System Dynamics Applications to Health Care in the United States. In Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science, ed. R Meyers. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_270-2.  2nd edition, 2016.  (Extensively updated after 2009 1st edition.)

Hirsch G, Homer J, Tomoaia-Cotisel A (editors).  System Dynamics Applications to Health and Health Care (15 previously published articles with new Introduction and Extended Bibliography). Virtual Issue of System Dynamics Review, available at  January 2015.

Homer JB. Models That Matter: Selected Writings on System Dynamics 1985-2010. Grapeseed Press, Barrytown, New York. ISBN: 978-0615679280. October 2012.

Homer J. A Dynamic Model of Cocaine Prevalence in the United States. In System Dynamics, ed. Y Barlas, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), available at Developed under auspices of UNESCO, EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK. 2004.

Refereed Journal Articles

Milstein B, Homer J. Which Priorities for Health and Well-Being Stand Out After Accounting for Tangled Threats and Costs? A Study of Potential Intervention Portfolios in Large Urban Counties. Milbank Quarterly, under review.

Homer J. Best Practices in System Dynamics Modeling, Revisited: A Practitioner’s View. System Dynamics Review, 35(2):177-181, 2019.

Homer J. A Comment on John Sterman’s “System Dynamics at Sixty: The Path Forward”. System Dynamics Review, 35(1):5-7, 2019.

Homer JB, Richardson GP.  On the Growth of the System Dynamics Field.  System Dynamics Review, 33(3-4):336-346, 2017

Homer J, Milstein B, Hirsch G, Fisher E. Combined Regional Investments Could Substantially Enhance Health System Performance and Be Financially Affordable. Health Affairs, 35(8):1435-1443, 2016.

McFarland L, Reineke E, Milstein B, Niles RD, Hirsch G, Cawvey E, Homer J, Desai A, Andersen D, MacDonald R, Irving R.  The NASPAA Student Simulation Competition: Reforming the U.S. Health Care System within a Simulated Environment.  J Pub Affairs Educ, 22(3):363-380, 2016.

Homer J, Wile K, Yarnoff B, Trogdon JG, Hirsch G, Cooper L, Soler R, Orenstein D. Using Simulation to Compare Established and Emerging Interventions to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risks in the United States. Preventing Chronic Disease, 11(E195):1-14, November 2014. Available at:

Homer J.  Levels of Evidence in System Dynamics Modeling.  System Dynamics Review, 30:75-80, 2014.

Lich KH, Tian Y, Beadles CA, Williams L, Bravata DM, Cheng EM, Bosworth HB, Homer JB, Matchar DB. Strategic Planning to Reduce the Burden of Stroke among Veterans: Using Simulation Modeling to Inform Decision Making.  Stroke, 45:2078-2084, 2014. 

Hirsch G, Homer J, Wile K, Trogdon JG, Orenstein D.  Using Simulation to Compare 4 Categories of Intervention for Reducing Cardiovascular Disease Risks. American Journal of Public Health, 104(7):1187-1195, 2014.

Homer J. The Aimless Plateau, Revisited: Why the Field of System Dynamics Needs to Establish a More Coherent Identity. System Dynamics Review, 29(2):124-127, 2013.

Mahamoud A, Roche B, Homer J.  Modeling the Social Determinants of Health and Simulating Short-term and Long-term Intervention Impacts for the City of Toronto, Canada. Social Science & Medicine, 93:247-255, 2012.  DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.06.036.

Homer JB. Partial-Model Testing as a Validation Tool for System Dynamics (1983). System Dynamics Review, 28(3):281-294 (Archives), 2012.

Milstein B, Homer J, Briss P, Burton D, Pechacek T. Why Behavioral and Environmental Interventions are Needed to Improve Health at Lower Cost. Health Affairs, 30(5), May 2011. DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2010.1116.

Kenealy T, Rees D, Sheridan N, Moffitt A, Tibby S, Homer J. A 'Whole of System' Approach to Compare Options for CVD Interventions in Counties Manukau. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 36(3):263-268, 2012. DOI: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00812.x.

Schmidt SM and 16 other authors (incl. Homer J). Proceedings from the Workshop on Estimating the Contribution of Sodium Reduction to Preventable Death. CVD Prevention and Control, 6(2):35-40, 2011.

Milstein B, Homer J, Hirsch G. Analyzing National Health Reform Strategies with a Dynamic Simulation Model. American Journal of Public Health, 100(5):811-819, 2010.

Hirsch G, Homer J, Evans E, Zielinski A. A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions. American Journal of Public Health, 100(4):616-622, 2010.

Homer J, Milstein B, Wile K, Trogdon J, Huang P, Labarthe D, Orenstein D. Simulating and Evaluating Local Interventions to Improve Cardiovascular Health. Preventing Chronic Disease, 7(1), January 2010. Available at:

Homer J, Milstein B, Wile K, Pratibhu P, Farris R, Orenstein D. Modeling the Local Dynamics of Cardiovascular Health: Risk Factors, Context, and Capacity. Preventing Chronic Disease, 5(2), April 2008. Available at:

Homer J. Reply to Jay Forrester's "System Dynamics--the Next Fifty Years". System Dynamics Review, 23(4):465-467, 2007.

Homer J, Hirsch G, Milstein B. Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy: The Perils and Promises of Downstream and Upstream Reforms. System Dynamics Review, 23(2-3):313-343, 2007.

Milstein B, Jones A, Homer J, Murphy D, Essien J, Seville D. Charting Plausible Futures for Diabetes Prevalence in the United States: A Role for System Dynamics Simulation Modeling. Preventing Chronic Disease, 4(3), July 2007. Available at:

Homer J, Hirsch G. System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3):452-458, 2006.

Jones A, Homer J, Murphy D, Essien J, Milstein B, Seville D. Understanding Diabetes Population Dynamics Through Simulation Modeling and Experimentation. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3):488-494, 2006.

Hoard M, Homer J, Manley W, Furbee P, Haque A, Helmkamp J. Systems Modeling in Support of Evidence-Based Disaster Planning for Rural Areas. Intl. J of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 208: 117-125, 2005.

Homer J, Hirsch G, Minniti M, Pierson M. Models for Collaboration: How System Dynamics Helped a Community Organize Cost-Effective Care for Chronic Illness. System Dynamics Review, 20(3): 199-222, 2004.

Homer J, Oliva R. Maps and Models in System Dynamics: A Response to Coyle. System Dynamics Review, 17(4): 347-355, 2001.

Homer J, Ritchie-Dunham J, Rabbino H, Puente L, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K. Toward a Dynamic Theory of Antibiotic Resistance. System Dynamics Review, 16(4): 287-319, 2000.

Homer J. Macro- and Micro-Modeling of Field Service Dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 15(2): 139-162, 1999.

Homer J. Structure, Data, and Compelling Conclusions: Notes from the Field. System Dynamics Review, 13(4): 293-309, 1997.

Homer J. Why We Iterate: Scientific Modeling in Theory and Practice. System Dynamics Review, 12(1): 1-19, 1996.

Homer J. A System Dynamics Model for Cocaine Prevalence Estimation and Trend Projection. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 251-279, 1993.

Homer J. Projecting the Impact of Law Enforcement on Cocaine Prevalence. Journal of Drug Issues, 23(2): 281-295, 1993.

Homer J. A System Dynamics Model of National Cocaine Prevalence. System Dynamics Review, 9(1): 49-78, 1993.

Homer J, St. Clair C. A Model of HIV Transmission Through Needle Sharing. Interfaces, 21(3): 26-49, 1991.

Homer J. A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving Medical Technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 31(3): 197-218, 1987.

Homer J. Worker Burnout: A Dynamic Model with Implications for Prevention and Control. System Dynamics Review, 1(1): 42-62, Summer 1985.

Finkelstein S, Homer J, Sondik E. Modeling the Dynamics of Decision-Making for Emerging Medical Technologies. R & D Management, 14(3): 175-191, 1984.

Roberts E, Homer J, Kasabian A, Varrel M. A Systems View of the Smoking Problem. International Journal of Biomedical Computing, 13: 69-86, 1982.

Homer J. Theories of the Industrial Revolution: A Feedback Perspective. DYNAMICA, 8(1): 30-35, Summer 1982.

Conference Papers and Presentations

Homer J. Designs for Living: A Simulation Analysis of Factors Affecting Achievement and Satisfaction over the Life Cycle. 35th International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, MA, 2017.

Homer J, Hirsch G, Cai L. How Will Mandated Medicare Payment Rate Reductions Affect Hospitals and Patients to 2050?  INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 2014.

Homer J. Beyond the Plateau: A Model to Investigate Past and Future Growth of the SD Society and Impact of the Field. Presented in its original form to the SD Policy Council at the 32nd International SD Conference, Delft, The Netherlands, 2014; and fully revised, 2017.

Hirsch G, Homer J, Milstein B, and others. ReThink Health Dynamics: Understanding and Influencing Local Health System Change.  30th International System Dynamics Conference, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2012.

Homer J, Curry C. Drawing Policy Conclusions Out of Uncertainty: The Case of Hospital-Acquired Infections. System Dynamics Winter Camp, Austin TX, 2011.

Milstein B, Homer J, Hirsch G. The "HealthBound" Policy Simulation Game: An Adventure in Health Reform. 27th International System Dynamics Conference, Albuquerque, NM, 2009.

Matchar DB, Lich KH, Homer J, Lee SD. Using System Dynamics Tools to Integrate Evidence into VA Stroke Care. QUERI National Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, 2008.

Homer J, Milstein B, Dietz W, Buchner D, Majestic E. Obesity Population Dynamics: Exploring Historical Growth and Plausible Futures in the U.S. 24th International System Dynamics Conference, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, 2006.

Hirsch G, Homer J, McDonnell G, Milstein B. Achieving Health Care Reform in the United States: Toward a Whole-System Understanding. 23rd International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, MA, 2005.

Manley W, Homer J, and others. A Dynamic Model to Support Surge Capacity Planning in a Rural Hospital. 23rd International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, MA, 2005.

Homer J, Jones A, Seville D, Essien J, Milstein B, Murphy D. The CDC’s Diabetes Systems Modeling Project: Developing a New Tool for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control. 22nd International System Dynamics Conference, Oxford, England, 2004.

Hirsch G, Homer J. Modeling the Dynamics of Health Care Services for Improved Chronic Illness Management. 22nd International System Dynamics Conference, Oxford, England, 2004.

Hirsch G, Homer J. Integrating Chronic Illness Management, Improved Access to Care, and Idealized Clinical Practice Design in Health Care Organizations: A Systems Thinking Approach. International Conference on Systems Thinking in Management, Philadelphia, PA, 2004.

Homer J, Milstein B. Optimal Decision Making in a Dynamic Model of Community Health. Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Waikoloa-Kona, Hawaii, 2004.

Homer J, Milstein B. Planning Comprehensive Public Health Programs: A Promising Opportunity for SD. System Dynamics Winter Camp, Austin, TX, 2003.

Homer J, Milstein B. Communities with Multiple Afflictions: A System Dynamics Approach to the Study and Prevention of Syndemics. 20th International System Dynamics Conference, Palermo, Italy, 2002.

Homer J, Jorgensen J, Hendricks K. Modeling the Emergence of Multidrug Antibiotic Resistance. 19th International System Dynamics Conference, Atlanta, GA, 2001.

Homer J. Notes from the S.D./O.R. Frontier. System Dynamics Winter Camp, Austin, TX, 2000.

Homer J, Keane T, Lukianseva N, Bell D. Evaluating Strategies to Improve Railroad Performance: A System Dynamics Approach. Winter Simulation Conference, Phoenix, AZ, 1999.

Homer J, Nickols F. Enterprise Modeling at ETS: Highways and Byways. International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, MA, 1996.

Homer J. System Dynamics for Strategic Forecasting. Pharmaceutical Management Science Association Conference, Captiva Island, FL, 1994.

Homer J. Pharmaceutical Market Models for Strategy Support. TIMS/ORSA National Conference, Cambridge, MA, 1994.

Homer, J, Sterman J, Greenwood B, Perkola M. Delivery Time Reduction in Pulp and Paper Mill Construction Projects: A Dynamic Analysis of Alternatives. International System Dynamics Conference, Cancún, Mexico, 1993.

Homer J, Somers I. Defense Program Lifecycle Management: A Dynamic Model for Policy Analysis. International System Dynamics Conference, La Jolla, CA, 1988.

Homer J, John R, Cotreau W. A Dynamic Model for Understanding Eating Disorders. International System Dynamics Conference, Seville, Spain, 1986.

Homer J. “By Prescription Only”: A Computer Simulation Game for Understanding the Emergence of New Medical Treatments. 3rd International System Dynamics Conference, Keystone, CO, 1985.

Homer J. The Effect of Government Regulation on the Emergence of a New Medical Technology. International System Dynamics Conference, Rensellaerville, NY, 1981.

Reports and Monographs for the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation

Homer J.  Reference Guide for the ReThink Health Dynamics Simulation Model: A Tool for Regional Health Transformation; Model Version 3v. For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, June 2016. (Formerly: Version 3s, June 2016.)

Homer J.  Simulating Four Possible Policy Reversals and How They Might Affect the Nation’s Health.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, December 2016.

Homer J.  Rethinking the “Bradley Ratio”.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, June 2016.

Homer J.  Modeling Value-Based and Global Payments and their Effects.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, December 2015.

Homer J.  Modeling the Effects of Underinsurance.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, November 2015.

Homer J.  Calculating Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) in the RTH Dynamics Model.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, September 2015.

Homer J.  Could Healthcare Cost Reductions Cause Economic Imbalance and Harm?  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, September 2015.

Homer J.  Introduction to the ReThink Health Dynamics Model: Simulating Local Health Reform in “Anytown USA". For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, August 2013. 

Homer J.  Does Place Matter for Policy? The Effect of Local Characteristics on Intervention Priorities in the ReThink Health Dynamics Model.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, August 2013.

Homer J.  How Could One Do the Most Good Here? Using the ReThink Health Dynamics Model to Evaluate Combined Intervention Strategies for Local Health Systems.  For Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, August 2013.

Homer J, Hirsch G. Modification and Testing of the HealthBound Simulation Model in Support of a New View of Health System Reform. For the Fannie E. Rippel Foundation, June 2009.

Other Reports and Monographs

Homer J. PRISM: The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model. Reference Guide for Model Version 3s. For RTI International and CDC, May 2019. (Formerly: Version 3q, May 2015, and Version 09v2q, November 2010.)

Homer J, Hirsch G.  A Model for Exploring the Impact of Medicare Rate Reductions on Providers and Patients: Reference Guide.  For Office of the Actuary, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, June 2014.

Homer J. Diabetes System Model Reference Guide (revised). For the Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (in association with Sustainability Institute and Center for Public Health Practice, Emory University), August 2006.

Homer J. The Evolution of a Radical New Technology: The Implantable Cardiac Pacemaker. MIT Sloan School of Management Case Study (ed. J Sterman), 1996.

Hser Y-I, Anglin MD, Wickens T, Brecht M-L, Homer J. Techniques for the Estimation of Illicit Drug-Use Prevalence: An Overview of Relevant Issues. National Institute of Justice Research Report NCJ 133786, May 1992.

Homer J. A Dynamic Model for Analyzing the Impact of Configuration Management on Program Implementation. Submitted to Hughes Aircraft Company (under contract with USC), September 1985.

Homer J. The Role of Consumer Demand in Business Cycle Entrainment. System Dynamics Group Paper D-3227-1, MIT, Cambridge, MA, October 1980.

Homer J. Home Insurance in a Changing Residential Community: A System Dynamics Approach and Case Study. Sloan School Working Paper WP 1107-80, MIT, Cambridge, MA, Dec. 1979.

System Dynamics Society Blog Posts (

Group Model Building: A Dialogue. July xx, 2019.

The Endogenous Perspective: A Friendly Amendment. July 8, 2019.

Let’s Consider Policy Feasibility. June 28, 2019.

First, Look at the Data. June 3, 2019.

Why We Mentor (and Should Mentor More). April 15, 2019.

How to Write a Great SD Conference Paper. March 4, 2019.